We are pleased to present the second edition of our interview format roeren inside, which was launched this year.

With roeren inside, we give you an insight into the topics that move us in our projects. At the same time, we want to create a platform for reflection and joint discourse on current and forward-looking issues. Together with leading minds from the worlds of business and science, we shed light on key aspects of the areas of expertise that shape our day-to-day consulting work.

Daniel Estner in conversation with Dafne Joel, university council member and authorized signatory in the aviation industry

The aerospace industry is facing major challenges: disrupted supply chains, an acute shortage of skilled workers and looming competition from China. Although Airbus and Boeing have full order books, they are struggling with a lack of urgently needed resources in many areas in order to meet the high demand. At the same time, the demands on suppliers are increasing, regulatory requirements are becoming stricter and new technologies such as alternative drive systems and digital efficiency improvements may change the industry permanently at some point.

In the second edition of roeren inside, Daniel Estner talks to Dafne Joel. She is a member of the University Council at Ravensburg-Weingarten University of Applied Sciences and an authorized signatory in the aviation industry. Together, they analyze the major challenges facing the sector, shed light on the future of the supply industry and discuss the role played by cooperation, sustainability strategies and the pressure to innovate.

How can the industry hold its own in an increasingly volatile market? And what lessons can be learned from other industries? The answers can be found in this expert talk.

Daniel Estner:
Good afternoon, Ms. Joel. Thank you for taking the time to talk to us about the future of the aerospace industry. Perhaps we should start with the basic question of what fascinates you personally most about the aerospace industry?

Dafne Joel:
Thank you also for allowing me to be here. I am particularly attracted by the high level of requirements. I am a welding engineer and have been working in the metalworking industry for many years. In Germany in particular, this is associated with very strict requirements, which I find exciting. Until now, aviation has also been a very predictable market – but that is changing considerably. Flying itself is of course enormously fascinating. What’s more, the industry is very networked. You meet the same people again and again – often very passionate pilots, which I find very pleasant.

Daniel Estner:
Yes, I feel the same way. I am particularly enthusiastic about the technology that makes flying possible in the first place – and which is ultimately only made possible by functioning supply chains. There are massive challenges here at the moment. How do you see the current situation?

Dafne Joel:
Aviation has been under particular pressure in recent years. The pandemic has severely impacted passenger traffic, while the war in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions have further exacerbated the situation. Added to this are trade restrictions imposed by the USA and China. These developments have caused lasting difficulties for many companies. Supply chains have collapsed completely in some cases, and a number of suppliers have had to file for insolvency. This has reduced capacity across the entire industry. At the same time, the problem of a shortage of skilled workers has also worsened. Many highly qualified workers left the industry due to the crises and did not return. When the industry then started up again – with Airbus leading the way – it quickly became apparent that there was not only a lack of components, but also a lack of personnel. A functioning supply network needs both.

Daniel Estner:
You often hear in the media that Airbus and Boeing are struggling with these challenges. Their order books are full, but they are unable to deliver their aircraft on time due to supply chain problems. The problem has been known for some time, but the OEMs are not managing to stabilize their supply chains or build them up with alternative suppliers. Is this also due to the high demands placed on suppliers?

Dafne Joel:
This is definitely a contributing factor. The high level of quality requires strict testing procedures, certifications and audits. In addition, there are product and customer-specific approvals, which incur high costs. Not every company has the prerequisites for this or wants to make this effort. As a result, the circle of suppliers remains manageable. At trade fairs and in the supply chain, the same companies and people are predominantly found. In this context, the industry is under strong pressure to adapt in order to become more resilient.

Daniel Estner:
Another problem seems to me to be that suppliers cannot plan for the long term. Airbus has just reduced its production rates again – this means fewer orders for suppliers who were previously performing very well.

Dafne Joel:
Exactly. Demand used to be very easy to plan, which made the supplier market attractive. Now, however, production rates no longer depend solely on demand, but on the weakest links in the supply chain. If some suppliers are unable to deliver, the major manufacturers have to adjust their production plans – and that in turn affects everyone.

Daniel Estner:
In the automotive industry, there are partnerships with which suppliers protect each other. Do such models also exist in aviation?

Dafne Joel:
There are networks and associations, but strategic partnerships are still rather rare. In Germany in particular, many suppliers find it difficult to work together more closely. The situation is different in France. Alliances were formed more quickly there.

Daniel Estner:
Speaking of standards: How has regulation changed in recent years?

Dafne Joel:
The requirements have generally increased further – and significantly so. This applies not only to safety-related and technical specifications, but also to environmental requirements. Based on the latest regulations, many OEMs have drawn up extensive catalogs of requirements that suppliers must also meet. This is somewhat at odds with the goal of gaining new attractive suppliers, but it is the reality.

Daniel Estner:
How is the industry dealing with the issue of sustainability?

Dafne Joel:
There is a lot of movement here. Companies are actively looking for ways to reduce CO₂ emissions. However, many measures are still difficult to measure. In practice, many are focusing on increasing efficiency because this is where the most potential lies in the short term. At international aviation trade fairs in recent years, the focus has been on developments and concepts for alternative propulsion systems using hydrogen or electricity. Nevertheless, I perceive that the aviation sector continues to rely heavily on tried-and-tested technologies and is only transforming in small steps rather than making radical changes.

Daniel Estner:
In the automotive industry, the pressure to transform is causing enormous change. Is this also being felt in aviation?

Dafne Joel:
Yes, with a time lag. In terms of time, the automotive industry has a few years head start here. In aviation, production volumes are also much smaller, which makes transformation more difficult. However, many methods from the automotive industry can be transferred to aviation – especially when it comes to increasing efficiency. And aerospace companies are highly competitive in this area.

Daniel Estner:
Speaking of competition: How seriously should Airbus and Boeing take the Chinese Comac?

Dafne Joel:
From my point of view, we have to take them very seriously. In relative terms, Comac has developed aircraft in a short space of time that are competitive with older but solid technology. They are producing at increasing but still very low rates – last year there were 10 deliveries – this could increase rapidly. Their biggest advantage is the massive government support. At the moment, they still lack their own high-performance engines. But it is only a matter of time before they catch up here too. Western manufacturers should keep a close eye on developments.

Daniel Estner:
The automotive industry has long underestimated how strong Asian manufacturers are becoming. Is the aviation industry in danger of making the same mistake?

Dafne Joel:
I think we have learned a lot. Chinese companies act with enormous consistency and perseverance. It would be naïve to believe that they cannot also be successful in aviation. At the moment, they are still dependent on Western technologies. It remains to be seen how the balance of power will develop.

Daniel Estner:
Skilled workers are a decisive factor for the future viability of the industry. How big is the problem?

Dafne Joel:
Very big. We urgently need young talent and need to adapt our training and working methods. Artificial intelligence can help in some areas, but it cannot close all the gaps. At the same time, we need more cooperation between universities and industry to promote talent at an early stage.

Daniel Estner:
To conclude: Which key developments will have the greatest impact on the industry over the next ten years?

Dafne Joel:
Sustainability remains a key issue, particularly efficiency improvements and alternative drives and fuels. Digitalization and automation will also play a key role, both in production and maintenance as well as in the aircraft themselves. The coming years will be exciting – and full of challenges.

Daniel Estner:
Thank you very much for the exciting exchange, Ms. Joel! I am excited to see how the industry will develop in the coming years. It is obviously facing a decisive decade: resilience in the supply chains, technological progress and possibly also the issue of sustainability will determine who remains competitive in the long term. I am convinced that strong partnerships, bold innovations and strategic adaptability will therefore be all the more important.

About our guest

Dipl.-Ing. Dafne Joel, International Welding Engineer

is an experienced leader in the aerospace industry. As a member of the University Council of the Ravensburg-Weingarten University of Applied Sciences, she contributes her extensive expertise to the academic and industrial development of the industry. With a degree in Civil Engineering and Environmental Engineering from the Technical University of Hamburg and as an International Welding Engineer, she has in-depth technical knowledge of material technologies, production standards and certification processes. As a member of the management team at Zeppelin Aviation & Industrial Service GmbH, she is always up to date with the latest market trends and developments. Dafne Joel is actively involved in standardization committees and technical working groups, including the DVS testing committee for welding in the aerospace industry. She is also a mentor in the Cross Company Mentoring Program of Spitzenfrauen BW, where she passes on her professional and personal experience to young female managers and supports them in their professional development.

Our roeren expert in the aerospace sector

Daniel Estner, M. Sc.

is a consultant at roeren with a focus on technology management and innovation strategies in the aerospace industry. With an academic background in mechanical and aerospace engineering, he brings a technical and strategic perspective to his projects. His focus in the aerospace industry is on supply chain management, production innovation and program management. He supports companies in the development of circular value chains and the implementation of efficient production systems. With his analytical approach and good knowledge of the industry, Daniel Estner helps to drive forward sustainable technologies in the aerospace sector and to develop sustainable production and business models for the industry.